5 questions from Central Scouting final meetings

TORONTO -- There may not be a generational player available in the 2017 NHL Draft as was the case the past two years, but evaluators at NHL Central Scouting had plenty of reasons to be excited preparing the final rankings of North American skaters and goaltenders.

"It's always a challenging task to find consensus [among the scouts], but the meetings were quite productive in having lively discussion and exchanging opinions and arguments to reach a comprehensive viewpoint," said Dan Marr, director of NHL Central Scouting. "The scouting this year was much more of a grind not only for Central Scouting but for all NHL scouting staffs in that the pool of players did not separate themselves as much.

"This made the evaluations and exams a much more extensive process all season long. At the end of the meetings, I believe strongly that the Central Scouting group presents the NHL clubs with a comprehensive ranking identifying where players should be considered for selection in the draft."

The final rankings of the top 217 skaters and 31 goaltenders in North America, as well as list of the top skaters and goaltenders in Europe, will be released later this month. The 2017 NHL Draft will be held at United Center in Chicago on June 23-24. 

Center Nolan Patrick (6-foot-3, 198 pounds) of Brandon of the Western Hockey League and center Nico Hischier (6-1, 176) of Halifax of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League were the top two players in Central Scouting's midterm ranking of North American skaters in January. Keith Petruzzelli (6-5, 180) of Muskegon of the United States Hockey League was the top-rated North American goaltender.

"The exciting thing about this year's draft is that because of the wide variety of players and how people are viewing them, there's going to be a lot of different ideas of who has value at what level," said David Gregory of NHL Central Scouting. "So by the time draft day comes, and based on what their list is saying, you could see a real variety of opinions."

Here are five questions that were answered during NHL Central Scouting's final meetings:

How would you rate the goaltending class this season compared to previous seasons?

The run on goaltenders in the 2016 draft began when Carter Hart of Everett in the Western Hockey League was chosen No. 48 by the Philadelphia Flyers. He was the first of four goalies selected in an 11-pick span in the second round. This year there could be as many as six goalies picked by the time the second round ends.

"It's a strong and deep class, probably more this year than the last few years," said Al Jensen of NHL Central Scouting. "I think there are a lot of goalies who have a chance to be No. 1 goalies in the NHL so I think that will excite the NHL teams a lot more." 

Do NHL teams place an emphasis on drafting bigger players in the early rounds?

Spokane right wing Kailer Yamamoto (5-7, 153), No. 17 on Central Scouting's midterm list, might be as skilled and competitive as any forward in the 2017 draft. But could his stature deter teams from selecting him ahead of a bigger, equally talented player?

"Size is only an asset if you use it correctly," said Central Scouting's Matt Ryan. "The bottom line is that you have to win puck battles. There are a number of ways to do that and there are many different elements that come into play outside of just sheer size and strength."

Said Central Scouting's John Williams, "I can speak from my own experience but every team wants to get bigger if they can. It's always a balancing act for general managers wanting to get bigger. So you want skill, you might have to take the smaller guy. You have to find a balance there."

Do you anticipate a defenseman being selected in the top 10?

In a draft that appears to be top-heavy with versatile, skilled forwards, it will be interesting to see where the first defenseman will fall. There are plenty of interesting candidates, among them Miro Heiskanen (6-0, 170) of HIFK in Finland, Timothy Liljegren (6-0, 191) of Rogle in Sweden, Juuso Valimaki (6-1, 204) of Tri-City of the WHL, Cale Makar (5-11, 179) of Brooks of the Alberta Junior Hockey League and Nicolas Hague (6-5, 206) of Mississauga of the Ontario Hockey League.

"I'd say the depth of defensemen is not there as compared to a year ago, but I think there's six or seven quality guys that'll end up in the first round that are definitely good prospects," said Troy Dumville of Central Scouting. "A team with two picks in the first round could decide to get that forward with the first pick and then focus on a defenseman with the next."

That lack of depth in the pool of defenseman could see a team take a chance on grabbing one early.

"Defensemen are at a premium this year," Gregory said. "That could cause a defenseman to go sooner. Early in the draft it's usually the best player available, but there's a couple defensemen there that some teams may step up for and say that's the kind of defenseman they want."

Are there players available in the later rounds that feature family pedigrees?

There are a number of players expected to go early with familiar family ties like Patrick, the son of Steve Patrick and nephew of James Patrick, each of whom played in the NHL; Hamilton (OHL) left wing Matthew Strome (6-3, 206), No. 19 in the midterm ranking, who is the younger brother of Ryan Strome of the New York Islanders and Dylan Strome of the Arizona Coyotes; and Regina (WHL) center Jake Leschyshyn (5-11, 184), No. 31, the son of former NHL player Curtis Leschyshyn. 

Others who could get picked in later rounds include center Skyler Brind'Amour (6-2, 170), the son of Carolina Hurricanes assistant coach Rod Brind'Amour, who played for South Kent School in Connecticut this season and is No. 202 in the midterm ranking. Defenseman Eero Teravainen (5-11, 173) of Lincoln (USHL) is the younger brother of Carolina Hurricanes forward Teuvo Teravainen. Goaltender Cayden Primeau (6-3, 179) of Lincoln, No. 4 among North American goaltenders in the midterm ranking, is the son of former NHL player Keith Primeau. Center Tyce Thompson (5-11, 149) of Salisbury Prep in Connecticut and No. 150 in the midterm ranking, is the son of former NHL player Brent Thompson and brother of St. Louis Blues prospect Tage Thompson.

How strong is the 2018 draft class?

At the top are goaltender Alexis Gravel (6-2, 205) and left wing Benoit-Olivier Groulx (6-1, 184) of Halifax; right wing Andrei Svechnikov (6-1, 188) of Muskegon; center Brady Tkachuk (6-2, 194) of USA Hockey's National Team Development Program Under-18 team, who is the younger brother of Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk and the son of former NHL star forward Keith Tkachuk; and center Joseph Veleno (6-1, 190) of Saint John (QMJHL).

"[Svechnikov] is so elite as a young player in a very tough league," Gregory said. "He was dominant in the USHL as a 16 year old. He just does so many things well from his skating skills, puck skills and hockey sense. He's definitely in the discussion to be selected No. 1 next year."

Svechnikov is the younger brother of forward Evgeny Svechnikov, who was chosen by the Detroit Red Wings with the No. 19 pick of the 2015 draft.

Will the ECB slow its interest rate hikes as euro zone inflation cools?

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank looks set to pull the rate-hike trigger on Thursday, but what it will do after July is less certain and financial markets are craving some guidance.

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens.

"The difference (from past meetings) is that until now they've given at least quite precise guidance vis-a-vis the next meeting," said Barclays head of European economics research Silvia Ardagna. "And they expect that to become more loose."

Here are five key questions for markets.

1/ How much will the ECB hike rates?

A quarter percentage point increase to 3.75% is priced in by markets and forecast by economists.

Headline inflation is cooling but remains high enough to justify a modest increase. The ECB has flagged a July move.

"The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik.

2/ What signals is the ECB likely to send about future policy?

Market consensus for one more hike after July is no longer rock solid after some ECB hawks suggested that a September rise is not certain, so the ECB could turn more cautious in its signalling, while confirming it will be data dependent.

"(ECB President Christine) Lagarde will stress uncertainty and conditionality (when and if she mentions further tightening)," said Massimiliano Maxia, senior fixed income specialist at Allianz Global Investors.

Some analysts expect the ECB to pause in September, when updated staff forecasts will supply it an opportunity to signal that inflation is set to reach its 2% target.

They added that they wouldn't be surprised if the ECB paused then and hiked later if needed, as the U.S. Federal Reserve has done. Money markets price in one more hike after July, suggesting rates will peak at around 4%.

3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall?

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde gestures while speaking to reporters following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting, in Frankfurt, Germany June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

While headline inflation fell for a third straight month in June, so-called core prices, such as those for services, have risen stubbornly and are not expected to relent soon.

Core inflation, seen as a better gauge of the underlying trend, only edged lower to 6.8% from 6.9% - far from the sustained drop rate-setters want to see.

ECB chief Lagarde will likely be pressed on this question but may not supply too much away before September's fresh economic projections.

"Underlying inflation will be very, very slow to come down so this is a worry for the ECB," said UBS chief European economist Reinhard Cluse, noting a tight labour market and wage pressures.

4/ What does a weakening economy mean for policy?

Well, rate-setters have reiterated that the main focus remains inflation, even if monetary tightening hurts the economy.

"I think (the weakening of the economy) will have minimal impact on monetary policy," said Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Europe economist at BofA. "What matters for the September meeting will be core inflation."

Still, slowing growth could strengthen the hands of doves. Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

BofA reckons the ECB's forecasts are too optimistic; Barclays expects a stagnation for several quarters starting from the second half of 2023.

5/ What impact is tighter policy having on financing conditions?

Bank lending data suggests the steepest surge in borrowing costs in the ECB's history has started to take a toll on credit conditions and latest numbers on July 25 are in focus.

The ECB's chief economist Philip Lane says loan volumes have weakened sharply and that this may generate a "substantial" decline in economic output.

This dovish message, if reinforced by latest bank lending data, may fuel speculation that rates are close to peaking.

"The peak impact of tightening financing conditions is going to be at the end of this year and the first half of 2024. So a lot of the effect still has to come," said BofA's Segura-Cayuela.

Reporting by Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Stefano Rebaudo in Milan, Graphics by Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram, Editing by Catherine Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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